Low chance of LPA to become tropical cyclone — PAGASA

January 14, 2014 11:13 pm 

MANILA, Jan. 14 -– Government’s weather agency sees a low chance for the low pressure area (LPA) affecting Visayas and Mindanao to develop into a tropical cyclone.

”There’s only a 30 percent to 40 percent chance for such to happen — that’s low,” said weatherman Gener Quitlong from State-run Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

He noted the LPA is already near land and needs warm ocean water to fuel its development into a tropical cyclone.

The prevailing northeast monsoon or cold "amihan" wind ispreventing the LPA from developing into a tropical cyclone, he continued.

In its 5 p.m. weather forecast released Tuesday, PAGASA located the LPA at some 50 km south of Guiuan, Eastern Samar province or 80 km northeast of Surigao City.

”The regions of Bicol, Eastern and Central Visayas, Caraga, Northern Mindanao and Davao will experience cloudy skies with moderate to occasionally heavy rainshowers and thunderstorms which may trigger flashfloods and landslides,” PAGASA said.

PAGASA also expects CALABARZON, MIMAROPA and the rest of the Visayas and Mindanao to experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rainshowers and thunderstorms.

”Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will be cloudy with isolated light rains,” it added.

Quitlong noted the LPA is main driver of rains in the Visayas and Mindanao at present.

The LPA plus convergence of "amihan" and easterly winds will bring precipitation to Southern Luzon, Bicol region, MIMAROPA and CALABARZON, he said.

PAGASA is looking at two possible scenarios for the LPA.

Quitlong said the LPA can remain in the Eastern Samar area for several days then move towards the Pacific Ocean.

”The LPA can also move towards Palawan province instead then head for West Philippine Sea,” he said.

He noted latest available data indicate the LPA will likely intensify in West Philippine Sea where waters are warmer.

In its forecast, PAGASA urged caution when setting out to sea.

”Coastal waters throughout the archipelago will be moderate to rough,” PAGASA said.

PAGASA added “moderate to strong winds from the northeast will prevail over Luzon and the Visayas and coming from the northeast to northwest over Mindanao.” (PNA)

LGI/CJT/UTB

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