Survey: A(H1N1) infection rate falls 37 percent in U.S. colleges
November 26, 2009 2:58 pm
HOUSTON, Nov. 26 — The A(H1N1) flu infection rate at universities in the United States fell 37 percent last week, said a survey released on Wednesday.
The drop followed a similar decline a week earlier, according to the latest survey of 243 colleges and universities by the American College Health Association (ACHA).
In the report, the infection rate decreased to 13.4 cases per 10,000 students from 21.3 cases, the ACHA said on Wednesday. The proportion of colleges with outbreaks fell to 90 percent from 95 percent.
It has been the first sustained drop since children and college students returned to school in August, causing some experts to believe that the second wave of A(H1N1) pandemic has peaked.
"The peak clearly has passed," said Ira Longini, a statistician at the University of Washington in Seattle who advises the U.S. government on flu.
Nationwide, 43 states reported widespread A(H1N1) flu activity last week, down from 46 in the previous week.
"We are beginning to see some declines in influenza activity, but there is still a lot of influenza everywhere," Dr. Anne Schuchat, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), told a press conference last Friday.
However, Schuchat warned that "the level of influenza activity we're seeing right now remains high."
"Even though we saw a little bit of a decrease this week, it is still higher than the peak activity in many years," she explained.
The A(H1N1) virus disproportionately attacks children and young adults, according to the Atlanta-based CDC.
About 90 percent of deaths occurred among people younger than 64, the CDC said. By contrast, the majority of deaths from seasonal flu are among people older than 80.
"My intuition tells me that if we're going to have a third peak, it would have to be under conditions in which the virus spreads into the older population," Longini said.
But Schuchat said she could not predict exactly what was going to happen over the weeks or months ahead.
"Influenza season typically goes from December to May, and nothing is typical about this year's influenza," she said. "We may have weeks and months of a lot of disease ahead of us." (PNA/Xinhua)
DCT/ebp
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